Speaker slides can be accessed by clicking on the talk titles in the conference program below. Please note that some speakers have preferred not to share slides. To download talk abstracts, please click on the pdf 'sra_abnms_melbournenov2017abstracts.pdf'. ​For more information about the speakers, please visit the Presenters page.

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Forum Theatre

Lectorial room 156

Project room 155

 

Monday November 20

08:45 – 09:00	Registrations
09:00 – 17:00	Workshop Introduction to Bayesian networks Dr Steven Mascaro, Dr Owen Woodberry & Dr David Albrecht
17:30	Wine reception & book launch Arts Hall, Old Arts

 

 

Tuesday November 21

08:00 – 08:30	Registrations
08:30 – 09:00	Welcome address SRA-ANZ president Dr Sandra Seno-Alday, ABNMS president Dr Trent Penman, and Vice-Chancellor of the University of Melbourne Professor Glyn Davis
09:00 – 10:00	The quality of reasoning in the intelligence game  Keynote by Professor Mark Burgman
10:00 – 10:20	Morning tea
	Session 1: Decision making & risk governance Chair: Mark Burgman
10:20 – 10:40	Does structured expert elicitation improve judgements?  Victoria Hemming, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis
10:40 – 11:00	Guidelines for expert elicitation in natural hazard assessment Dr Annemarie Christophersen, GNS Science
11:00 – 11:20	Predicting the risks of illegal fishing: out of sample evaluation of empirical and subjective Bayesian models using STAN Dr William Dixon, Victorian Fisheries Authority
11:20 – 11:40	Assessing the impact of a regulatory change on import behaviours Dr Sandy Clarke, Statistical Consulting Centre
11:40 – 12:00	Networking probabilistic systems for decision support Dr Martine Barons, University of Warwick
12:00 – 12:20	How wise is the crowd? A quantitative estimate of the intelligence gain in crowd-sourced solutions Dr Ans Vercammen, Imperial College London
12:20 – 13:00	Lunch
13:00 – 14:00	Assessing risks to biodiversity in a changing world Keynote by Dr Emily Nicholson
	Session 2: Ecological risks Chair: Andrew Robinson	Session 3: Bayesian networks Chair: David Albrecht
14:00 – 14:20	Selecting and applying indicators of ecosystem collapse for risk assessment Jessica Rowland, Deakin University	Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi Dr Kevin Korb, Monash University
14:20 – 14:40	A new framework to assess relative ecosystem vulnerability to climate change Calvin Lee, Deakin University
14:40 – 15:00	Afternoon tea
	Session 2: Ecological risks con’d Chair: Andrew Robinson	Session 3: Bayesian networks con’d Chair: David Albrecht
15:00 – 15:20	Using models and a decision framework to optimise threat management in alpine and subalpine peatlands of Victoria Dr Abbey Camaclang, NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub, Monash University	iOOBN: a tool for modelling application using OOBN Md Samiullah, Monash University
15:20 – 15:40	Maximising the benefit of emerging technologies for ecological survey Dr Cindy Hauser, University of Melbourne	Bayesian network model for multi-criteria decision analysis Abida Shahzad, Monash University
15:40 – 16:00	Detection dogs, when are they worth the effort? Emma Bennett, University of Melbourne	Building better parent-child relationships through simpler parameterisation Dr Steven Mascaro, Bayesian Intelligence
16:00 – 17:00	SRA-ANZ AGM	ABNMS AGM
18:00	Conference dinner Café Italia, Carlton

 

 

Wednesday November 22

08:30 – 09:00	Registrations
09:00 – 10:00	Experto Crede: Crafting Bayesian networks from expert knowledge Keynote by Dr Bruce Marcot
	Session 4: Bayesian networks Chair: Annemarie Chistophersen	Session 5: Human health risks Chair: Margaret MacDonell
10:00 – 10:20	Using a Bayesian network to estimate the impacts of complementary measures on regional abundance of fish in the Murray-Darling Basin Dr Sam Nicol, CSIRO	Using strength-based approaches to engage indigenous youth in health risk communication Professor Cindy Jardine, University of the Fraser Valley
10:20 – 10:40	Integrative approach in aquatic food web management using stable isotopes and Bayesian belief network Rayson Lim, National University of Singapore	A system designed to detect and predict emerging food safety risks Hong Jin, Food Standards Australia New Zealand
10:40 – 11:00	A fire regime tool using Bayesian networks to improve environmental fire risk estimates Dr Trent Penman, The University of Melbourne	Constructing novel risks: the case of bisphenol A Professor Steve Maguire, Mcgill University
11:00 – 11:20	Morning tea
	Session 6: Bayesian networks Chair: Annemarie Chistophersen	Session 7: The big picture Chair: Sandra Seno-Alday
11:20 – 11:40	Challenges and opportunities in applying Bayesian network modelling to strategic force design Dr Thang Cao, Defense Science Technology Group	The Risk Cycle: Three interconnected modes of organizing risk Professor Cynthia Hardy, University of Melbourne
11:40 – 12:00	iSpy STI: online self-diagnostic tool for sexually transmitted infections Dr Owen Woodberry, Bayesian Intelligence	Are you sure? Lexicological difficulties arising from risk terminology Chris Peace, Risk Management
12:00 – 12:20	A continuous Bayesian network for volcano monitoring and eruption forecasting Dr Annemarie Christophersen, GNS Science	Privacy risks in an open data world Dr Chris Culnane, University of Melbourne
12:20 – 12:40	Exploring mitigation strategies to reduce the likelihood of house losses from wildfires Katie Collins, University of Wollongong	Risk analysis – smart guys in a dumb profession Associate Professor Tony Pooley, University of South Australia and Principle Seven
12:40 – 13:20	Lunch
	Session 8: Biosecurity invasions Chair: Cindy Hauser	Session 9: Risks to people: human safety Chair: Tom Beer
13:20 – 13:40	Plant invasions in Australia: How can decision-theory inform management? Dr Aaron Dodd, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis	Three radical principles to increase trust during environmental contamination Associate Professor Craig Dalton, Hunter New England Health and University of Newcastle
13:40 – 14:00	Identification and effective treatment of non-compliant biosecurity regulatory behaviour Claire McKee, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources	Modelling grass pollen to manage thunderstorm asthma risk Dr Jeremy Silver, University of Melbourne
14:00 – 14:20	Naturalized exotic species from the tropical botanic gardens: trait-based assessment Decky Junaedi, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis
14:20 – 14:40	Simple rules for protecting islands from biological invasions Dr Danny Spring, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis	Health and safety and participatory science in an interconnected world Dr Margaret MacDonell, Argonne National Laboratory
14:40 – 15:00	Does size matter to biosecurity risk? Associate Professor Andrew Robinson, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis	The need for establishing a balanced and proportionate approach to environmental risk assessment Dr Peter Nadebaum, GHD
15:00 – 15:20	The ‘curse of dimensionality’ resolved! Optimal surveillance measures in large dimensional settings for the early detection of pests and diseases Professor Tom Kompas, University of Melbourne	Drawing drowning: exploring spatial perceptions of risk in hazardous coastal environments using qualitative GIS Peter Kamstra, The University of Melbourne
15:20 – 15:40	Afternoon tea
	Session 10: Communicable risks Chair: Aaron Dodd	Session 11: Risks to people: animals & roads Chair: Libby Rumpff
15:40 – 16:00	Detecting abnormal disease activity in spatially-indexed case data Alexander Zarebski, University of Melbourne	Large animal related illness and injury to New Zealand veterinary students: Who is responsible for their safety? Professor Chris Riley, Massey University
16:00 – 16:20	Assessing the risk of a canine-rabies incursion in Northern Australia Emily Hudson, Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney	A generalised predictive model for wildlife-vehicle collision risk with large mammals Casey Visintin, The University of Melbourne
16:20 – 16:40	Modelling the effect of housing on the risk of avian influenza outbreaks in commercial poultry Dr Belinda Barnes, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences	Verifying the infrastructure risk rating model on roads in regional Victoria Vivek Chhanabhai, Safe System Solution
16:40 – 17:00	The interconnected mosquito: managing risk of exotic mosquitoes at international airports in Australia John Nielsen, Department of Agriculture	Calibrating infrastructure risk rating (IRR) for Victorian roads Dr Tom Beer, Safe System Solution
17:00 – 17:15	Award ceremony for best student talk

 

 

Thursday November 23

09:00 – 12:00	Workshop Transparency, reproducibility & open science Associate Professor Fiona Fidler & Dr Ascelin Gordon, assisted by Hannah Fraser
13:00 – 16:00	Workshop Uniting risk analysis & structured decision making Professor Mark Burgman & Dr Libby Rumpff

 

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