SRA-ANZ conference 2018
  • Program
  • Keynotes
  • Sessions
  • Location
    • Accommodation
Speaker slides can be accessed by clicking on the talk titles in the conference program below. Please note that some speakers have preferred not to share slides. To download talk abstracts, please click on the pdf 'sra_abnms_melbournenov2017abstracts.pdf'. ​For more information about the speakers, please visit the Presenters page.
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Forum Theatre

 

Lectorial room 156

 

Project room 155

 

Monday November 20

08:45 – 09:00

Registrations

09:00 – 17:00

Workshop

Introduction to Bayesian networks

Dr Steven Mascaro, Dr Owen Woodberry & Dr David Albrecht

17:30

Wine reception & book launch

Arts Hall, Old Arts

 

 

Tuesday November 21

08:00 – 08:30

Registrations

08:30 – 09:00

Welcome address

SRA-ANZ president Dr Sandra Seno-Alday, ABNMS president Dr Trent Penman, and Vice-Chancellor of the University of Melbourne Professor Glyn Davis

09:00 – 10:00

The quality of reasoning in the intelligence game

 Keynote by Professor Mark Burgman

10:00 – 10:20

Morning tea

 

Session 1: Decision making & risk governance

Chair: Mark Burgman

10:20 – 10:40

Does structured expert elicitation improve judgements?

 Victoria Hemming, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis

10:40 – 11:00

Guidelines for expert elicitation in natural hazard assessment

Dr Annemarie Christophersen, GNS Science

11:00 – 11:20

Predicting the risks of illegal fishing: out of sample evaluation of empirical and subjective Bayesian models using STAN

Dr William Dixon, Victorian Fisheries Authority

11:20 – 11:40

Assessing the impact of a regulatory change on import behaviours

Dr Sandy Clarke, Statistical Consulting Centre

11:40 – 12:00

Networking probabilistic systems for decision support

Dr Martine Barons, University of Warwick

12:00 – 12:20

How wise is the crowd? A quantitative estimate of the intelligence gain in crowd-sourced solutions

Dr Ans Vercammen, Imperial College London

12:20 – 13:00

Lunch

13:00 – 14:00

Assessing risks to biodiversity in a changing world

Keynote by Dr Emily Nicholson

 

Session 2: Ecological risks

Chair: Andrew Robinson

Session 3: Bayesian networks

Chair: David Albrecht

14:00 – 14:20

Selecting and applying indicators of ecosystem collapse for risk assessment

Jessica Rowland, Deakin University

Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi

Dr Kevin Korb, Monash University

14:20 – 14:40

A new framework to assess relative ecosystem vulnerability to climate change

Calvin Lee, Deakin University

 

14:40 – 15:00

Afternoon tea

 

Session 2: Ecological risks con’d

Chair: Andrew Robinson

Session 3: Bayesian networks con’d

Chair: David Albrecht

15:00 – 15:20

Using models and a decision framework to optimise threat management in alpine and subalpine peatlands of Victoria

Dr Abbey Camaclang, NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub, Monash University

iOOBN: a tool for modelling application using OOBN

Md Samiullah, Monash University

15:20 – 15:40

Maximising the benefit of emerging technologies for ecological survey

Dr Cindy Hauser, University of Melbourne

Bayesian network model for multi-criteria decision analysis

Abida Shahzad, Monash University

15:40 – 16:00

Detection dogs, when are they worth the effort?

Emma Bennett, University of Melbourne

Building better parent-child relationships through simpler parameterisation

Dr Steven Mascaro, Bayesian Intelligence

16:00 – 17:00

SRA-ANZ AGM

ABNMS AGM

18:00

Conference dinner

Café Italia, Carlton

 

 

Wednesday November 22

08:30 – 09:00

Registrations

09:00 – 10:00

Experto Crede: Crafting Bayesian networks from expert knowledge

Keynote by Dr Bruce Marcot

 

Session 4: Bayesian networks

Chair: Annemarie Chistophersen

Session 5: Human health risks

Chair: Margaret MacDonell

10:00 – 10:20

Using a Bayesian network to estimate the impacts of complementary measures on regional abundance of fish in the Murray-Darling Basin

Dr Sam Nicol, CSIRO

Using strength-based approaches to engage indigenous youth in health risk communication

Professor Cindy Jardine, University of the Fraser Valley

10:20 – 10:40

Integrative approach in aquatic food web management using stable isotopes and Bayesian belief network

Rayson Lim, National University of Singapore

A system designed to detect and predict emerging food safety risks

Hong Jin, Food Standards Australia New Zealand

10:40 – 11:00

A fire regime tool using Bayesian networks to improve environmental fire risk estimates

Dr Trent Penman, The University of Melbourne

Constructing novel risks: the case of bisphenol A

Professor Steve Maguire, Mcgill University

11:00 – 11:20

Morning tea

 

Session 6: Bayesian networks

Chair: Annemarie Chistophersen

Session 7: The big picture

Chair: Sandra Seno-Alday

11:20 – 11:40

Challenges and opportunities in applying Bayesian network modelling to strategic force design

Dr Thang Cao, Defense Science Technology Group

The Risk Cycle: Three interconnected modes of organizing risk

Professor Cynthia Hardy, University of Melbourne

11:40 – 12:00

iSpy STI: online self-diagnostic tool for sexually transmitted infections

Dr Owen Woodberry, Bayesian Intelligence

Are you sure? Lexicological difficulties arising from risk terminology

Chris Peace, Risk Management

12:00 – 12:20

A continuous Bayesian network for volcano monitoring and eruption forecasting

Dr Annemarie Christophersen, GNS Science

Privacy risks in an open data world

Dr Chris Culnane, University of Melbourne

12:20 – 12:40

Exploring mitigation strategies to reduce the likelihood of house losses from wildfires

Katie Collins, University of Wollongong

Risk analysis – smart guys in a dumb profession

Associate Professor Tony Pooley, University of South Australia and Principle Seven

12:40 – 13:20

Lunch

 

Session 8: Biosecurity invasions

Chair: Cindy Hauser

Session 9: Risks to people: human safety

Chair: Tom Beer

13:20 – 13:40

Plant invasions in Australia: How can decision-theory inform management? Dr Aaron Dodd, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis

Three radical principles to increase trust during environmental contamination

Associate Professor Craig Dalton, Hunter New England Health and University of Newcastle

13:40 – 14:00

Identification and effective treatment of non-compliant biosecurity regulatory behaviour

Claire McKee, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources

Modelling grass pollen to manage thunderstorm asthma risk

Dr Jeremy Silver, University of Melbourne

14:00 – 14:20

Naturalized exotic species from the tropical botanic gardens: trait-based assessment

Decky Junaedi, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis

 

14:20 – 14:40

Simple rules for protecting islands from biological invasions

Dr Danny Spring, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis

Health and safety and participatory science in an interconnected world

Dr Margaret MacDonell, Argonne National Laboratory

14:40 – 15:00

Does size matter to biosecurity risk?

Associate Professor Andrew Robinson, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis

The need for establishing a balanced and proportionate approach to environmental risk assessment

Dr Peter Nadebaum, GHD

15:00 – 15:20

The ‘curse of dimensionality’ resolved! Optimal surveillance measures in large dimensional settings for the early detection of pests and diseases

Professor Tom Kompas, University of Melbourne

Drawing drowning: exploring spatial perceptions of risk in hazardous coastal environments using qualitative GIS

Peter Kamstra, The University of Melbourne

15:20 – 15:40

Afternoon tea

 

Session 10: Communicable risks

Chair: Aaron Dodd

Session 11: Risks to people: animals & roads

Chair: Libby Rumpff

15:40 – 16:00

Detecting abnormal disease activity in spatially-indexed case data

Alexander Zarebski, University of Melbourne

Large animal related illness and injury to New Zealand veterinary students: Who is responsible for their safety?

Professor Chris Riley, Massey University

16:00 – 16:20

Assessing the risk of a canine-rabies incursion in Northern Australia

Emily Hudson, Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney

A generalised predictive model for wildlife-vehicle collision risk with large mammals

Casey Visintin, The University of Melbourne

16:20 – 16:40

Modelling the effect of housing on the risk of avian influenza outbreaks in commercial poultry

Dr Belinda Barnes, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Verifying the infrastructure risk rating model on roads in regional Victoria

Vivek Chhanabhai, Safe System Solution

16:40 – 17:00

The interconnected mosquito: managing risk of exotic mosquitoes at international airports in Australia

John Nielsen, Department of Agriculture

Calibrating infrastructure risk rating (IRR) for Victorian roads

Dr Tom Beer, Safe System Solution

17:00 – 17:15

Award ceremony for best student talk

 

 

Thursday November 23

09:00 – 12:00

Workshop

Transparency, reproducibility & open science

Associate Professor Fiona Fidler & Dr Ascelin Gordon, assisted by Hannah Fraser

13:00 – 16:00

Workshop

Uniting risk analysis & structured decision making

Professor Mark Burgman & Dr Libby Rumpff

 


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