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Forum
Theatre |
|
Lectorial
room 156 |
|
Project
room 155 |
Monday November 20
08:45
– 09:00 |
Registrations |
09:00
– 17:00 |
Workshop Introduction to Bayesian networks Dr Steven
Mascaro, Dr Owen Woodberry & Dr David Albrecht |
17:30 |
Arts Hall, Old Arts |
Tuesday November 21
08:00
– 08:30 |
Registrations |
|
08:30
– 09:00 |
Welcome address SRA-ANZ
president Dr Sandra Seno-Alday,
ABNMS president Dr Trent Penman,
and Vice-Chancellor of the University of Melbourne Professor Glyn Davis |
|
09:00
– 10:00 |
The
quality of reasoning in the intelligence game Keynote by Professor Mark Burgman |
|
10:00
– 10:20 |
Morning tea |
|
|
Session 1: Decision making & risk governance
Chair: Mark Burgman |
|
10:20
– 10:40 |
Does structured expert elicitation improve
judgements? Victoria Hemming, Centre of Excellence
for Biosecurity Risk Analysis |
|
10:40
– 11:00 |
Guidelines for expert elicitation in
natural hazard assessment Dr Annemarie
Christophersen, GNS Science |
|
11:00
– 11:20 |
Predicting
the risks of illegal fishing: out of sample evaluation of empirical and
subjective Bayesian models using STAN Dr William
Dixon, Victorian Fisheries Authority |
|
11:20
– 11:40 |
Assessing
the impact of a regulatory change on import behaviours Dr Sandy
Clarke, Statistical Consulting Centre |
|
11:40
– 12:00 |
Networking
probabilistic systems for decision support Dr Martine
Barons, University of Warwick |
|
12:00
– 12:20 |
How
wise is the crowd? A quantitative estimate of the intelligence gain in
crowd-sourced solutions Dr Ans
Vercammen, Imperial College London |
|
12:20 –
13:00 |
Lunch |
|
13:00
– 14:00 |
Assessing risks to biodiversity in
a changing world Keynote by Dr Emily Nicholson |
|
|
Session 2: Ecological risks Chair: Andrew Robinson |
Session 3: Bayesian networks Chair: David Albrecht |
14:00
– 14:20 |
Selecting
and applying indicators of ecosystem collapse for risk assessment Jessica
Rowland, Deakin University |
Bayesian
ARgumentation via Delphi Dr Kevin
Korb, Monash University |
14:20
– 14:40 |
A new framework
to assess relative ecosystem vulnerability to climate change Calvin Lee,
Deakin University |
|
14:40
– 15:00 |
Afternoon tea |
|
|
Session 2: Ecological risks con’d Chair: Andrew Robinson |
Session 3: Bayesian networks con’d Chair: David Albrecht |
15:00
– 15:20 |
Using
models and a decision framework to optimise threat management in alpine and
subalpine peatlands of Victoria Dr Abbey Camaclang,
NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub, Monash University |
iOOBN: a tool for modelling application
using OOBN Md
Samiullah, Monash University |
15:20
– 15:40 |
Maximising
the benefit of emerging technologies for ecological survey Dr Cindy
Hauser, University of Melbourne |
Bayesian network model for multi-criteria
decision analysis Abida
Shahzad, Monash University |
15:40
– 16:00 |
Detection
dogs, when are they worth the effort? Emma
Bennett, University of Melbourne |
Building better parent-child relationships
through simpler parameterisation Dr Steven
Mascaro, Bayesian Intelligence |
16:00
– 17:00 |
||
18:00 |
Café Italia, Carlton |
Wednesday November 22
08:30
– 09:00 |
Registrations |
|
09:00
– 10:00 |
Experto Crede: Crafting Bayesian
networks from expert knowledge Keynote by Dr
Bruce Marcot |
|
|
Session 4: Bayesian networks Chair: Annemarie Chistophersen |
Session 5: Human health risks Chair: Margaret MacDonell |
10:00
– 10:20 |
Dr Sam
Nicol, CSIRO |
Using strength-based
approaches to engage indigenous youth in health risk communication Professor Cindy
Jardine, University of the Fraser Valley |
10:20
– 10:40 |
Integrative approach in aquatic food web
management using stable isotopes and Bayesian belief network Rayson Lim,
National University of Singapore |
A
system designed to detect and predict emerging food safety risks Hong Jin,
Food Standards Australia New Zealand |
10:40
– 11:00 |
A fire regime tool using Bayesian networks
to improve environmental fire risk estimates Dr Trent
Penman, The University of Melbourne |
Constructing
novel risks: the case of bisphenol A Professor Steve
Maguire, Mcgill University |
11:00
– 11:20 |
Morning tea |
|
|
Session 6: Bayesian networks Chair: Annemarie Chistophersen |
Session 7: The big picture Chair: Sandra Seno-Alday |
11:20
– 11:40 |
Challenges
and opportunities in applying Bayesian network modelling to strategic force
design Dr Thang
Cao, Defense Science Technology Group |
The
Risk Cycle: Three interconnected modes of organizing risk Professor Cynthia
Hardy, University of Melbourne |
11:40
– 12:00 |
iSpy STI: online self-diagnostic tool for
sexually transmitted infections Dr Owen
Woodberry, Bayesian Intelligence |
Are
you sure? Lexicological difficulties arising from risk terminology Chris
Peace, Risk Management |
12:00
– 12:20 |
A continuous Bayesian network for volcano
monitoring and eruption forecasting Dr Annemarie
Christophersen, GNS Science |
Privacy
risks in an open data world Dr Chris
Culnane, University of Melbourne |
12:20
– 12:40 |
Exploring
mitigation strategies to reduce the likelihood of house losses from wildfires Katie
Collins, University of Wollongong |
Risk
analysis – smart guys in a dumb profession Associate
Professor Tony Pooley, University of South Australia and Principle Seven |
12:40
– 13:20 |
Lunch |
|
|
Session 8: Biosecurity invasions Chair: Cindy Hauser |
Session 9: Risks to people: human safety Chair: Tom Beer |
13:20
– 13:40 |
Plant
invasions in Australia: How can decision-theory inform management? Dr Aaron
Dodd, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis |
Three
radical principles to increase trust during environmental contamination Associate Professor Craig Dalton, Hunter New England Health
and University of Newcastle |
13:40 –
14:00 |
Identification
and effective treatment of non-compliant biosecurity regulatory behaviour Claire
McKee, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources |
Modelling
grass pollen to manage thunderstorm asthma risk Dr Jeremy Silver, University of Melbourne |
14:00
– 14:20 |
Naturalized
exotic species from the tropical botanic gardens: trait-based assessment Decky
Junaedi, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis |
|
14:20
– 14:40 |
Simple
rules for protecting islands from biological invasions Dr Danny
Spring, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis |
Health
and safety and participatory science in an interconnected world Dr Margaret
MacDonell, Argonne National Laboratory |
14:40
– 15:00 |
Does
size matter to biosecurity risk? Associate
Professor Andrew Robinson, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis |
The
need for establishing a balanced and proportionate approach to environmental
risk assessment Dr Peter
Nadebaum, GHD |
15:00
– 15:20 |
The
‘curse of dimensionality’ resolved! Optimal surveillance measures in large
dimensional settings for the early detection of pests and diseases Professor Tom
Kompas, University of Melbourne |
Peter
Kamstra, The University of Melbourne |
15:20
– 15:40 |
Afternoon tea |
|
|
Session 10: Communicable risks Chair: Aaron Dodd |
Session 11: Risks to people: animals &
roads Chair: Libby Rumpff |
15:40
– 16:00 |
Detecting
abnormal disease activity in spatially-indexed case data Alexander
Zarebski, University of Melbourne |
Professor Chris
Riley, Massey University |
16:00
– 16:20 |
Assessing
the risk of a canine-rabies incursion in Northern Australia Emily
Hudson, Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney |
A
generalised predictive model for wildlife-vehicle collision risk with large
mammals Casey Visintin,
The University of Melbourne |
16:20
– 16:40 |
Modelling the effect of housing on the risk
of avian influenza outbreaks in commercial poultry Dr Belinda
Barnes, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
|
Verifying
the infrastructure risk rating model on roads in regional Victoria Vivek
Chhanabhai, Safe System Solution |
16:40
– 17:00 |
John
Nielsen, Department of Agriculture |
Calibrating
infrastructure risk rating (IRR) for Victorian roads Dr Tom
Beer, Safe System Solution |
17:00
– 17:15 |
Thursday November 23
09:00
– 12:00 |
Workshop Transparency, reproducibility &
open science Associate
Professor Fiona Fidler & Dr Ascelin Gordon, assisted by Hannah Fraser |
13:00
– 16:00 |
Workshop Uniting risk analysis &
structured decision making Professor
Mark Burgman & Dr Libby Rumpff |